Key Takeaway

Foldables are a real vertical category that has already reached 10 million units, but they account for only 2.5% of global phone shipments, and the main battleground is highly concentrated in China — they are 'not to be underestimated', not an 'irreversible trend'.

OriginThere was only ever one motivation: a bigger screen that still fits in your pocket

Phone screens grew from the 3.5–4 inches Steve Jobs insisted on all the way past 6 inches, and beyond that you can't hold them. Foldables and VR headsets are essentially solving the same problem — it's just that the VR wave hasn't solved it yet.

'The core point is simply a big enough screen…… once a 6-plus-inch phone can't be held anymore, the answer, of course, is folding it.' [00:07:01]

Brief historyA minimal history of the foldable

▸Nokia first proposed the concept of a foldable phone [00:08:49]

▸Samsung showed a flexible-screen prototype in 2011, but only launched the Galaxy Fold 8 years later (2019) [00:08:56]

▸In 2018 Royole released the first flexible foldable phone, raised 13 rounds and over 10 billion yuan in 8 years, and ultimately went bankrupt [00:09:49]

▸The Galaxy Fold and Huawei Mate X established the mainstream route of 'folds inward + separate outer screen' [00:10:38]

▸Early outward-folding models had screens that looked like a screen protector stuck on; many users peeled it off as if it were one, ruining the screen [00:11:14]

DataA snapshot of the 2025 market

UsersThe most important group in this market

Chinese bosses holding Huawei foldables in first class and at social occasions are the core user base for foldables — this directly shapes the product's 'social currency' quality.

'In first class on planes…… those Chinese bosses you see holding Huawei foldables — these are absolutely the most important group of users.' [00:12:57]

Key Takeaway

The spec compromises of foldables are real, but most people never perceive them; what actually makes them 'awkward to use' are four things — a heavier body, faster battery drain, the careful opening-and-closing ritual, and a nonstop psychological cost.

PhysicsThe cost of ultra-thin is borne jointly by cooling, battery, and modules

The unfolded state must be ultra-thin, internal space is squeezed ever tighter, and there is simply no room for the full modules a flagship carries — even Apple can't escape this constraint.

'To build this foldable…… even though the price is a notch higher, the performance has always been a notch lower.' [00:15:33]

CounterintuitiveSpec compromise ≠ experience compromise

Flagship performance long ago exceeded what everyday scenarios require. Review videos spend a quarter or even a third of their runtime on low-light photography, but for most people photography itself may only be 3%–5% of phone use. So obsessing over specs doesn't mean much.

'A lot of analysis of foldable phones is about specs and performance, but honestly I don't think it matters that much.' [00:17:57]

Fourfold costFour felt realities of actual use

▸Battery: it does drain faster than an iPhone Pro Max, but charging ports are everywhere now, so not a fatal flaw [00:19:46]

▸Crease: nearly invisible when you're focused on the content, only noticeable with glare — in practice, minor [00:19:03]

▸Weight and protection: a 250-plus-gram body that grows to 300-plus grams with a case — spending 15,000 yuan to be thinner, then putting a few-dozen-yuan case on it [00:28:43]

▸Psychological cost: not daring to prop it on a bike for navigation, not daring to toss it on the table; one fall from the bed dented the frame's corner [00:27:21]

DisillusionmentIt is not a flip phone you can flick open with a snap

It's not like the Motorola flips of childhood. The glass body must be carefully aligned and pried open with two hands — impossible one-handed — which by itself lowers how often you open it.

'Every time you use it you add just a little psychological cost — it's like a ritual before you open it.' [00:25:29]

Key Takeaway

You carry the weight, thickness, and price long-term for a screen you rarely open. And the experience gain that screen brings is far smaller than the spec sheet implies.

Key dataInner-screen usage below 30%

vivo vice president Huang Tao publicly pointed out at the XFold6 launch that many foldable users open their inner screen less than 30% of the time, and 'the core ways of using it are no different from seven years ago'.

'Foldables keep getting better, but the core ways of using them are no different from seven years ago, and many foldable users open their inner screen less than 30% of the time.' [00:22:05]

ScenarioOne hand can't hold it, and two hands already have an iPad

Holding the unfolded state one-handed shakes easily; in reality it's a two-handed cradle — and for that scenario users already own a 10-inch iPad with a better experience. Carrying extra weight long-term for a rarely used inner screen isn't worth it.

'It's really meant more for the two-handed cradle scenario…… for that scenario I'd just bring an iPad, and my iPad is even bigger.' [00:21:11]

GeometryMore area ≠ more experience

Side effectOnce it gets wider, vertical feeds actually suffer

After the wide-fold's outer screen got wider, scrolling vertical list feeds like Meituan or Taobao compresses the height — one screen shows only three stores, and information density drops rather than rises. This isn't an adaptation problem; it's a ratio problem.

'As I remember ordering takeout on Meituan, I could only see three stores at once…… the experience just dropped off a cliff.' [00:24:10]

SoftwareThe adaptation rate is 'fake prosperity'

Huawei officially claims a 95% big-screen adaptation rate for the top 1000 apps, but most of it is just 'filling the screen' or a crude left-right split, not a redesign. And the Android ecosystem lacks the pull and enforcement to push developers to redo interactions — a structural disadvantage at the OS level.

'Some adaptations genuinely redo every interface, but most adaptation is just finding a way to fill the screen.' [00:34:26]

Key Takeaway

Yu Jun's user value formula still holds today: if your old experience is a 'phone + iPad mini' with the iPad playing a big role, the two-in-one is a plus; if you mainly work on a computer, a foldable just adds burden.

FormulaNew experience − old experience − switching cost

A new product doesn't automatically improve everyone's life, because everyone's old experience is completely different. Don't fantasize that a new product will change your way of life.

'What exactly is your old experience, and can it make my old experience better — not just assuming that any new product will surely make everyone's old experience better.' [00:37:22]

PlusFor whom it's a good deal

▸Salespeople who travel often: handle messages on the road, show clients a deck right in a café [00:37:47]

▸Young people whose phone is their only computing device: no computer, no iPad — a bigger screen is productivity [00:36:22]

▸Bosses 'reviewing memorials': work that an iPad mini can handle, and a tri-fold opens up just right [00:41:00]

MinusFor whom it's a burden

People who mainly work on a computer — and also record, edit, look things up, run AI tools — can't replace a computer with a seven-or-eight-inch screen; and swapping a Pro Max for a foldable also means losing your main camera phone.

'What you're buying isn't a slab phone that can turn into a tablet, but an iPad mini that can fold.' [00:38:39]

TestA counterintuitive but extremely practical judgment

If a seven-or-eight-inch tablet can't do your work, don't expect a foldable to do it — the productivity ceiling they can carry is the same thing.

'If a seven-or-eight-inch tablet can't do it, it's hard to expect a foldable phone to do it for you.' [00:41:47]

ClosingDon't harbor illusions about big screens

You don't clutch an iPad in your hand while eating, so you won't clutch a foldable in your hand either. Scenarios you never had, a new product won't create.

'Scenarios you never had before, you cannot solve through a new product.' [00:43:23]

Key Takeaway

Cook's innovation paradigm is not 'disruptive creation' but 'reforming existing markets'; the real killer feature of the iPhone Duo is not hardware specs but the 4:3 content ecosystem the iPad has built up over fifteen years, which can migrate over wholesale, plus system-level one-handed interaction optimization — an ecosystem crush against a fragmented Android camp.

CookNot Jobs, but he grew the market cap to nearly 5 trillion

He faced the most controversy when taking office; the market cap has since grown more than tenfold. Apple Watch and AirPods were both born on his watch, and the M chips made the Mac mini sought-after hardware for OpenAI and Anthropic training agents.

'Without the era of Bluetooth noise-canceling earbuds that AirPods brought, there would be no podcast market — and especially no Chinese-language podcast market.' [00:45:38]

ParadigmFrom 'disruption' to 'reforming existing markets'

Apple has entered a new phase: using supply-chain capability, product taste, and integration to make, within markets that already exist, the one product 'everyone is willing to choose'. Less and less sexy, but still dependable.

'What comes later is a phase of honestly reforming existing markets…… such that a product Apple makes appears in that market, and everyone chooses the Apple product.' [00:47:22]

DemystifyingJobs wasn't a god either: two famous misjudgments

'Jobs wasn't a god, he was still human…… he was also in the middle of iterating, also in the middle of developing and changing.' [00:48:19]

▸He was strongly against building the App Store — and the app store is now one of Apple's highest-margin sources, essentially money for nothing [00:48:35]

▸He insisted 3.5 inches was the perfect size to hold, and judged that 'tablets under 7 inches are doomed' [00:48:47]

Killer featureThe iPad's 4:3 ecosystem can migrate wholesale

Since its 2010 debut, the iPad has accumulated a massive, well-adapted content ecosystem at the 4:3 ratio, and that software can be ported directly to the unfolded state — a crushing migration advantage over the Android camp, and Apple's cleverest move.

'Unfold it and it's an iPad, and the iPad mini and the various other iPad models have been preparing for this moment for years.' [00:58:20]

System-levelOne-handed interaction: the 10 points Android can't reach

Apple moves frequently used controls and Dock icons to the dominant-hand side, solving the unreachable-big-screen problem at the system level — and can pull developers along. This reminded the author of a similar proposal from his Smartisan T1 days at Smartisan — back then the designers refused to draw it because it broke axial symmetry, and in the end Luo Yonghao made the call.

'Even if it only adds ten points, the change is enormous — it gets a lot of people who were watching from the sidelines, who were fence-sitters, to start using foldables.' [01:01:03]

HardwareNo mythology, but the highest composite score

It uses a mature supply chain, its specs feel little different from Android foldable flagships, and 254 grams is no advantage; but cooling is decent and battery life sits between the Pro and Pro Max. Samsung's official account posted repeatedly during the launch that 'you're reheating our leftovers' — indeed micro-innovation, but it is Apple's biggest new product since AirPods and Apple Watch.

'It isn't itself a particularly stunning product that completely changed the industry…… but it truly did deliver the best foldable phone on the market right now.' [00:56:15]

China marketTwo variables you can't get around

▸Adaptation by national-scale apps: domestic super-apps are highly concentrated, and WeChat and Alipay were never great on the iPad — this directly decides the foldable iPhone's experience in China [01:02:08]

▸eSIM and price band: setting the eSIM issue aside; the price has drawn level with Android foldable flagships — a very damaging move [01:03:03]

Who will buyThree types buy without hesitation; everyone else should think it through

'If you're not one of the people above, you may need to think carefully about whether you really have these big-screen needs.' [01:06:26]

Key Takeaway

Phone form factors will not converge, only keep diverging; but foldables will not replace slab phones — not even if performance and price fully equalize in the future — because a substantial share of people simply have no need to open the inner screen.

DivergenceForm factors won't converge, only keep diverging

The Motorola and Nokia era was a hundred flowers blooming, later consolidated by the iPhone; in recent years it has begun diverging again — and this time it most likely won't converge back.

'Phone form factors will not converge; phone form factors will diverge.' [01:09:28]

VerdictFoldables won't replace slab phones, even with specs equalized

The 2.5% global share might be pushed to 5% or even 10% thanks to Apple. But the very act of 'opening' is inconvenient, and meaningless to people who rarely use the inner screen — it isn't simply 'bigger is better'.

'Even if it fully matched slab-phone performance and experience, with every aspect including price the same, it would still struggle to replace slab phones, because a substantial share of people simply have no need to open the inner screen.' [01:11:20]

VoteA global vote would only pick the slab phone

If all other form factors were destroyed and only one could remain, people would pick the slab phone; but as long as others are allowed to exist, every form factor will keep differentiating — 8-inch and 9-inch tablets that can make calls are already appearing.

'If other phones are allowed to exist, of course they will keep existing, and they will keep diverging, keep differentiating.' [01:12:44]

Another pathAnother route to a bigger screen: AI glasses

VR headsets still offer a poor experience, but AI glasses can already present a larger picture (the author recently tried a pair from RayNeo and found it 'quite interesting'); it is one optional path toward making the phone screen bigger.

'It's already an attempt at presenting a bigger screen, and going forward this path is also one optional route to making the phone screen bigger.' [01:13:50]

Further outWhy do we need screens in the first place

There are many alternatives for audio-visual needs; the phone is already enough, and content itself is designed for phones. Productivity needs big screens because GUIs need to lay out complex interactive interfaces. If the future is LUI rather than GUI, whether big screens still matter is another question entirely.

'If the future really is LUI rather than GUI, then whether these big screens still mean anything — that's another matter.' [01:15:54]

The host's answerWill Liu Fei himself buy one

A month before launch, he puts the odds at 30%–35% — an honest 'haven't decided yet'.

'My odds of buying right now are about 30%, 35%. There's still a month until launch, and in that month I'll think it over carefully.' [01:16:16]